2016 Half down, half to go, what to expect
Expect smooth sailing or wild storm. Crystal ball for second half of 2016 in travel says…
Travel patterns mirror real life patterns, concerns and joys.
May and June of 2016 have been on the whole, disruptive to travel. But what does that mean? People spend when they feel happy, secure and confident of their future. Travel is “discretionary spend” and at certain times, it’s easier to say “well, we will put that off for awhile yet…” and hang tight. Think GFC. People just wanted to save and pay down debt. Mining boom and better aussie dollar, everyone feels happy to spend.
The last 2 months have had an unholy trinity that have by and large created sporadic shopping patterns in travel. The combination of looming Brexit, end of financial year and election made it easier for bread winners to enter a “lets just hang tight” mentality.
Elections are a given disruptor to just about everything, which is weird as gone are the days when there was a marked difference between labour and liberal mentalities. Once an election is called, people get conservative. Looking at our figures over the past 3 elections, there has been a definite dip during the campaigns and a recovery almost instantly in the days afterward.
Brexit is a once in a lifetime event and incredibly hard to understand the impact of and plan for. It became a conservative trigger, not unlike “Y2K”. Remember that? The fear that went with the thought our entire computer network around the world would collapse. Reality? No change, at all. Brexit in the short term, the same in that nothing will change for ages and as far as Aussies are concerned, the impact wont be that massive. But months of negative news, gloom and doom, stock market palpitations, wasn’t good for free spending.
Topping it off, EOFY was the icing on the cake.
So what now all of that has passed? One small hurdle to overcome for Aussie agents. For many that’s about safety and sadly, events at Istanbul airport are scaring people away from exotic destinations. As a result, I see a renewed interest in domestic travel which for agents, means business lost as people book it themselves.
But otherwise its rosy. Trade figures out of China which were far less than flash, have kept the Aussie dollar high (before the next rate cut). Even more so is the prediction that it may be more stable than ever before as other currencies, especially anything near a Euro, looks flaky. So buying power will be good. Combine that with a super low pound and we will see renewed interest in the UK and if you are going all that way, Europe.
With the election gone, even though there’s barely a result, people will spend again. They will sit down through these school holidays and plan their next vacation. Possibly with some stimulus of good prices. Qantas and their bonus point offer to London will kick things along as well as Team America running a great campaign. Interest in Hawaii still running strong.
For the first time in a few years, agents could be in for a bumper crop for the second half of the year. Lets make it happen.